Firstly, some positive news. China was one of 30 destination countries to report double-digit tourism growth rates in the first three to five months of 2008, according to the June edition of the UNWTO World Tourism Barometer.

The other double-digit tourism gainers were: Japan, Korea, Macao, Cambodia, Indonesia, Vietnam, Fiji, India and Nepal, the USA, Cuba, Jamaica, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Panama, Chile, Peru and Uruguay, Sweden, Bulgaria, Latvia, Lithuania, Israel, Malta, Montenegro and Turkey, Bahrain, Egypt and Morocco.

According to the UNWTO report, "the first results for 2008 suggest the relative stability of international tourism. In spite of uncertainties posed by the global economy, international tourist arrivals grew at around five per cent between January and April 2008, compared to the same period of 2007." The UNWTO expects global tourism demand to grow, but at a slower pace over the remainder of the year.

That “slower pace” is already being felt by China’s tourism sector. "Shanghai air fares are at their lowest levels for five years" is a very unexpected quote from a well-placed source. It is surprising for two reasons. Firstly, oil price rises are sending global airlines into meltdown. Cathay Pacific is the latest to issue a profits warning, and Chinese airlines are among those to have announced increased fuel surcharges in their pricing mechanisms.

Carriers worldwide are very aware that passing on increased fuel prices to passengers will simply slash demand, but have very little leeway as operating costs are pushing many of them close to the brink. The current result is airlines are slashing long-haul flights and offering cut-price deals on routes (especially from China) that they believe will be profitable in the longer term.

The second surprise is the ‘Olympics factor’: projections earlier this year suggested the Beijing Olympics would galvanise China's travel and tourism industry – notably increasing the demand for, and, therefore, the pricing of, hotel rooms and air tickets. It simply hasn't happened.

International travel demand to China is weakening, and not just because of China’s strict new visa issuing restrictions, which it says are designed to increase security for the Games. A frail U.S. dollar has decimated America's outbound travel industry this summer, and economic loom in Europe is also affecting long-haul travel. Both are impacting demand for travel to China.

As Giovanni Bisignani, IATA's Director General and CEO, said this week, "The high price of oil is re-shaping the industry. The major shifts in [air] traffic flows experienced during May reflect this." His comments followed new figures showing that international air cargo and passenger travel demand in May were significantly down year on year.

After a sustained period of tourism growth, China is – like everywhere else – currently feeling the pinch of cyclical global economics, and not the superficial Olympic tourism boost that was so widely predicted. Hoteliers, airlines and tour companies are hastily recalculating their 2008 projections – and hoping for an improved performance during the Sept-Nov season, which is usually a busy period for leisure, corporate and MICE travel in China.